The Worst is Yet to Come

All I am reading on the recovery front is wall street and not employment. When wall street gains, it is not recovery. When main street gains, it is recovery.

Wall street is corporations.

Main street is the people.

We are not out of this yet.

Personally, tax the rich to the hilt to help everyone else!

I don't know why I said Pakistan instead of Afghanistan. Too many windows open, too much going on I guess. Sorry bout that.

CaptainKidd

We do not have a robust, strong manufacturing base in this country to fire up the economy if and when the economy begins a recovery.

For years now the American economy has been driven by insane levels of advertising to get New! Bigger! Brighter! Bolder! and the purchase of luxury goods on credit, not real money. Whatever the government's role has been, for good or for ill, this corporate/consumer relationship is unsustainable because it's dependent on smoke and mirrors and immediate gratification

We do not have a robust, strong manufacturing base in this country to fire up the economy if and when the economy begins a recovery.

Exactly correct. I've been in the construction and contracting trades for almost 30 years. When I started out I worked almost exclusively in industrial settings. Cotton mills, wool mills (and if you've never worked in a wool mill, whew! You don't know how sickening the smell of lanolin can get to be), clothing mills, auto parts manufacturers. Things like that. Gradually, at first, but then at an accelerating pace, those types of jobs simply dried up. I've seen many companies go under because most of their work was for some manufacturer that just packed up and left.

Then I phased into more commercial type work, stores, offices, showrooms, warehouses. Places where things were NOT made but were simply sold, stored or transhipped. Now that type of work is drying up because people aren't shopping as much...because they can't. Because they don't have jobs in those plants that used to make things anymore and we can't all take in each other's laundry and sell each other burgers. Somebody, somewhere has to MAKE SOMETHING! And we're not doing that any more in this country, and really, we haven't for a very long time.

For years now the American economy has been driven by insane levels of advertising to get New! Bigger! Brighter! Bolder! and the purchase of luxury goods on credit, not real money.

That is one of the many things that got us here.

From the beginning, through the first half of the 20th century, Americans were taught to work, be productive, and save their money. Purchase a home. Debt was bad.

For the last 60 years, that philosophy has deteriorated. The government has spent with no control, and the people have followed that example. People no longer had to save for a down payment for a home, or car.

Buy it with nothing down. If you can't afford it, get an adjustable rate, and maybe you can afford it in a couple years.

Get a new car every 2 years. Nothing down. 72 months financing. If the car is too expensive, then lease it instead of buying. Just turn it in at the end of 3 years..

The people are a living image of their government. We, as a nation, and as a people, have attempted to borrow our way to prosperity. When the whole thing melted down last year, they weren't preaching jobs as salvation, or employment as the priority, they were preaching credit as the savior.

They kept telling the public that credit was the life blood of the economy.

There is no equity in anything, because we own nothing.

Somebody, somewhere has to MAKE SOMETHING!

No truer words have been spoken!

Captain Kidd;

They are trying all of the same old tricks that FDR and Hoover tried, because it all worked out then

Except that FDR himself wondered - in 1937 (3/4 thru the depression) - why nothing they did seemed to work. He did not cause the end of the Depression - unless you count entering WWII as his achievement.

The manufacturing base was practically comatose, but when the WAR was declared, it became the engine that pulled us out. But without the War, we may easily have spent additional years depressed - if we didn't collapse completely.

Still - you are surely correct that the lack of this base is gonna hurt. Then, it was there, just not used. I don't think there is anything remotely comparable - nor do I think you will see it, as long as the Unions remain intact. Like government, they are squarely in the way of any necessary "adjustments".

My point was the lack of recognition in the differences that exist today, and the lack of original thinking and creativity in the solutions that are being proposed.

I agree that FDR was not responsible for the end of the Great Depression, nor was Hoover. When the war ended, the sudden demand for durable goods, the abundance of disposable income that created the increased demand for consumer goods, and the evolution of the suburban society created an industrial demand that put America back to work. The problem worked itself out because of the fortuitous circumstances that were in place in the USA at the time.

This demand is not there today, due to the lack of jobs being created, and if it were there, there is no manufacturing base to support it. These goods would be produced elsewhere, so the demand itself would not benefit us, because it would not be creating jobs.

They are trying the same old tricks that FDR and Hoover tried. Nobody in Washington DC seems to be able to see that FDR's and Hoover's tricks didn't fix the problem. And therein lies the lack of recognition in the situation, and the lack of creativity in addressing the problem.

Mike, go to the library and pick up a history book and read. GWB is not the problem...read Man! Get some clues to what is really going on here! It's not conservative or democrat!

This has to do with the Constitution of the United States and how it's being interpreted and abused!

2centsworth,

It's also about the extraordinarily wealthy using their wealth in ways that operate beyond the boundries of U. S. law or any single country's laws.

Meanwhile, I'm seeing and talking to people every day who've worked their entire lives and are concerned they will not be able to heat their homes and feed themselves this winter. Some because their savings, IRA's, etc have been strip mined and some because the retirement money they counted on simply won't go far enough. If you have elderly or disabled family please be sure to keep an eye on them. They will need help.

Wheel, that is so true! But it boils down to OUR (yours and mine) areas to DO something about it!

We have to take BACK what we once owned.....and that is (as you so eloquently stated) MAKE SOMETHING!

I'm probably older than you.....I've worked very hard my entire career....and I see NO sight of retirement. Given, I've been a divorcee, living from paycheck to paycheck, and coupled with that, in an industry predominately male, I 'accept' SOME things are going to be inevitable (NOT without a grievance about it!), but my sense of JUSTICE and EQUALITY bring me back to the "essence" of our (Americans) creation and endurance.

I'm 58. :) I don't even fear for myself so much as I fear for my grandchildren (I have 4, 3 girls, 1 boy). They will NEVER have the opportunities for education, for work and for self betterment that my generation and the generations preceeding mine had.

I would do anything for those kids, go to the streets. Struggle for return of what's been taken from us, anything. But I really don't know what to do or what it would accomplish at this time.

I sometimes feel that we, as a nation, need to find a new path. To reject commercialism and consumerism and to embrace the notion that not having a new car or the latest fashion does not diminish us. But that pursuing goals of self development and developing new behaviors that aren't so 'me'-centric is really the only way to go. We've got to quit playing the wealthy's game, we aren't going to win and it's a suckers bet to spend our lives on it.

I'm just 60 and I'm just learning to realize that we all have to work to make our government to support us and not any other country. I lied. I have been complaining about this since the sixties.

Buy locally and support your neighbours!

I plan on using my soc-sec check as a car payment, if you old farts don't crash my gravy train first. ;)

How are you going to use a social security check ...by the time you get around to collect wont be any left...remember Bush want you t have your own account with your money in it and you manage it...but the left...voted against this idea....prefering instead the original intent...you werent suppose to collect

Thats the part where they crash my gravy train. As long as the old people don't run it out of business I will be set for a new car whenever I get to the age they will let me collect (if ever).

As long as the stock market doesn't take a nasty and permanent @!$%# I will be good to go when I decide to retire.

The only thing left of the American Pie when the Baby Boomers are done with it will be crumbs...

The Baby Boomers paid trillions into social security - Reagan wasted most of that money but each president has dipped into that money. We Baby Boomers will not have the nice lifestyle that we funded for the generation before us - we're the ones getting crumbs. We've also been robbed of our 401ks, retirement funds and benefit plans. I don't plan to retire until I'm 70 and SS will pay me 8% more for each year that I wait to retire. I have to do that because money I had in two 401ks was completely lost. We're getting less back for our SS contributions than any previous generation.

hear hear! Im in the same boat exactly.

My Generation rides in the wake of the Boomers and as we reach each successive decade we find nothing but wastelands and crumb. It's like standing in line to buy tickets to a big show only to be the one to have the "Sorry Sold Out" sign slammed in your face as you finally reach the ticket counter. You complain because your retirement is going to be delayed a bit, while ours will never come. I foresee, having to work till the day I die. My SS payout will be a big fat ZERO no matter when I am "eligible". As for the 401k, I foresee the bankers and our Boomer led socialist government confiscating that so they can meet their SS obligations to the boomers.

s.heraclitus

unfortunately you maybe correct.....Remember it was George Bush who wanted your money in a seperate account for you...so that the Government could not send away your retirement...but this administration saw fit to make sure thier will be nothing left for your children... for that i am sorry to see

Yeah I was thinking this recently...or something really similar.

"El Presidente" is the guy who's gonna get stuck holding the bag. He just got promoted to Captain as the Titanic struck the iceberg. At this point, savior or not, there's not a damn thing he can do to significantly alter what's going to happen over the next five years. It's just too late.

The real problems began 30, maybe 40 years ago. We've traipsed merrily down this little golden path, led by Democratic and Republican presidents alike.

Now the bill has come due, and we pretend to be amazed at the balloon payment.

Play politics with it if you want (every sinking ship needs a musical diversion), but if you voted D or R, you made the same contribution to our mess. As did I.

i'd go far as to say the problem started pretty close to ummm 1913. . . if ya know what I mean

December 23, 1913?

That's the date I had in mind.

we have a winner. . . well 2 winners. . .

Thanks.

you realise the armed forces are themselves socialist institutions right? large groups who take care of their own with a narrow common focus. The oath. the creed, The defense of the constitution.

Lets name some 'socialist ' countries. Did you know the united states already was one?

Australia, scary huh, NZ up til recently had free non elective medical and kids dental up to 16, prenatal, postnatal. Booga booga 'socialist' countries.

I think you mean 'communist' but 'socialist' is the new commie-lite right? It's like a codeword. ppfftt.

Using your definition any government ever would be socialistic, as they are a group who takes care of their own with a common focus.

In Marxist theory, socialism is just the transition from Capitalism to Communism.

Socialism is a great idea, but in practice it gets messed up by the greedy and the lazy.

Socialism is a great idea, but in practice it gets messed up by the greedy and the lazy.

Humanity is a great idea but in practice it gets messed up by the greedy and the lazy.

Personally a little more lazyness and a little less greed might be helpful.

Interestingly the standard bearers of capitalism have just helped themselves to billions of their fellow citizens collective investment in the American society.

So demonstratively and very destructively and quite blatantly it would appear that capitalism is merely a long term deceit that obscures outright theft behind rhetoric posing as economic principle.

'Socialism, capitalism whatever, just distractions while the nation state is hollowed out for the benefit of the few while the culture at large is guided through polarising distractions like the real world political eunuchs they are.

Mike: In conjuction with 2scents reply to your post about it being a particular president's fault, you should look back almost 100 years to W. Wilson ans the formation of the federal reserve. Looke even further back, and you will see the battle that raged between presidents and the national bank. We were set up to work from a debt system, and the Fed has taken it too far. Our dollar is worth less every day, and our debt grows by the day. No one seems to have the moxy to say no more and close the fed, and work on repaying our debt. It's like we have a credit card with no limit, and before long, if not already, we will be so deep, the Fed will have a strangle hold on the US. Greenspan admitted that he was wrong about our econmy, and that was not GWB's fault. It is the people who run the finacial institution of this country who are killing us slowly. And the gov. just keeps adding more stones to the pile.

Stop and think about it. If we were to get into a major war again (think WWII), would we have the production capacity to produce enough armaments, supplies, etc? I suspect the answer is no, and that then would actually be an issue of national security. Because trust me, there are always those that would do us harm.

Guess Iraq and Afghanistan while occupying countries across the globe doesn't register as something which is the size of a 'major war'. I don't understand you...

Um Apple? Designed in California. Made in China.

Heck, even most of our apple juice is made in China.

The only thing we manufacture in America any more is suckers. And we're almost out.

do you think we have the manufacturing base to support that kind of engagement?

The US was only recently supplanted in total manufacturing output by China. That doesn't indicate we don't have the manufacturing base to make military weapons.

Do we have any direct military products that are assembled or manufactured by other countries? I'm sure we outsource certain aspects of our military production, but most of the products are made here under heavy security.

The US was only recently supplanted in total manufacturing output by China.

The question is not Can we still manufacture?

The question is What can we still manufacture?

Although China only recently supplanted us in total manufacturing, our heavy industrial manufacturing is almost gone. The manufacturers of such items as large earth movers, large industrial construction equipment, and similar items are not here anymore. The aircraft industry, again, a fraction of what it used to be.

These are the industries which are necessary due to the ability to convert to military production relatively quickly. It is much easier to retool a factory that makes tracked excavators or bulldozers into a factory that makes tanks than it would be to retool a factory that makes central air conditioners to do the same thing.

And, assuming that conversion and retooling were capable, would materials be available to manufacture the items necessary for a large scale conventional conflict such as mentioned above? We have only a shadow of the domestic steel industry that we used to have. Much of the steel we use now comes from China. Could we count on that supply if this happened?

The manufacturers of such items as large earth movers, large industrial construction equipment, and similar items are not here anymore. The aircraft industry, again, a fraction of what it used to be.

Caterpillar still makes raw engine blocks in Peoria. From pour to finish machine from the foundry.

You act as though they don't have the blueprints for the castings, the finish machine specs, and so on. Even factories that have been shuttered still have the equipment in them for this work, and many times the equipment is warehoused, from lathes, to CNCs, to smelters, to whatever.

In short...Yes, they can still manufacture a piece of steel from raw to finished machined product in this country. The difference being you don't need 50 people to do this like you would in China, you might need 5-10 Here to get it done.

So much of these processes are gone because the labor is cheaper, but a lot the number of jobs have been reduced because our processes are also a lot more efficient. We don't need the same number of people to do this as we did before.

I don't know about Boeings military contracts, but I do know from ones I have worked on before that many times they simply won't allow castings from any country other than Japan, US, or Western Europe, along with all materials being sourced as well.

And you can't just say you bought it from so and so. It has to be with Material Testing Certification, PMI, proven heat numbers, and so on.

Again, I don't have all the details of the DOD, but I'm highly skeptical that much if any steel at all comes from China in a US tank, Battleship, etc. It's usually not allowed because China has some of the most inferior castings and raw materials on the planet. To put it plainly.

China also can't manufacture Steel on its own because they just don't have the available Iron Ore. The majority comes from Austrilia. Assuming Austrilia would be on our side in such a conflict, Chinas manufacturing industry would almost immediately cease.

It's usually not allowed because China has some of the most inferior castings and raw materials on the planet.

Correct!! In fact I was reading an article in 'Snips', an HVA/C trade magazine a few months ago about problems with cast iron piping from China being substandard. I'm not going into the whole tainted sheetrock from China mess. But the cast iron pipe was not inspected and tested rigorously during casting and there were found to be some major defects. Some contractors lost thousands of $'s having to remove and replace 'insta-rotting' chinese piping.

You act as though they don't have the blueprints for the castings, the finish machine specs, and so on.

I was addressing the issue of a major conventional war (a la WWII) and the material needs that would have to be met in order to fight that type of conflict. Whether they still have the blueprints, tooling and machine tools to produce these items is not the question. The time it would take to get those factories operational was my point.

Even factories that have been shuttered still have the equipment in them for this work, and many times the equipment is warehoused, from lathes, to CNCs, to smelters, to whatever.

Heavy manufacturing equipment is not designed to sit idle. I have worked in the manufacturing industry for 25 years, and anyone who has worked with these types of machine tools, presses, forges and similar equipment will probably agree that idled machinery, especially older machinery, does not age well. Restarting that type of facility is not a "flip the switch and it all lights up" operation.

If you ever get an opportunity, take a tour of some of the idled foundries and mills around the Pittsburgh area. They are closed and shuttered, but it would take months to get the machinery back to an operational state.

Even factories that have been shuttered still have the equipment in them for this work, and many times the equipment is warehoused, from lathes, to CNCs, to smelters, to whatever.

It's a bit more complicated than that. Training workers to the necessary level of competence takes time. Especially when you have no cadre of skilled personel to help in that task because all the people with necessary skills have been rehired, retired, given up hope of work, aged out, etc.

Most of the men and women that know the trade of machining, assembly, metalwork, etc, are retired.

You got that right. I am a manufacturing engineer, with 25 years in the metal fabricating industry. I went through trades training, and held a journeyman sheet metal mechanic certification before moving into the engineering end of the business.

When you mention the term "Journeyman" or "Mechanic" these days, people look at you as if you were speaking Swahili.

There is no skilled labor on the shop floor. Just button pushers.

Great discussion! Nothing to add, but took tuns away.

You got that right. I am a manufacturing engineer, with 25 years in the metal fabricating industry

You're aware then that China is SOL in such a war right?

They are incapable of producing enough Iron Ore to make much of anything at all on their own. In a purely conventional sense.

Our current armed forces are quite sizeable (especially given the budget) we spend more than all the nations on earth combined. And as I said, of the projects I've worked on, no material at all was allowed from any Foundry other than a quality country, and in most cases actually came right from the USA.

Heavy manufacturing equipment is not designed to sit idle.

Yeah, I mean that 50+ year old manual Lathe we have never cuts straight or true...oh wait, yeah it does.

Most of the men and women that know the trade of machining, assembly, metalwork, etc, are retired

I think the more accurate statement is many went on to other jobs. Baby Boomers are just on the cusp of retiring now.

As I pointed out, a factory in the US today can produce 10, 20, 30X times more with less people than say a WWII factory.

As far as a discussion of the practicality of a conventional war, neither China or Russia currently have the ability to significantly strike anyone overseas by conventional means.

And even going back to WWII, it took the US 2 1/2 years before they were ready for D-Day. And it took them going deep, deep in debt. Deeper in debt than we are now in proportion to the size of the economy.

Of course, one also has to consider the standing army prior to WWII was not much of anything at all. The Post WWII US Army has always been large and combat ready and still is today.

You're aware then that China is SOL in such a war right?

The Chinese could, if they so desired, put 5 million men in uniform in whatever time it takes to clothe them. Remember, theirs would not be a volunteer force. Without us resorting to Nukes, they could be armed with sticks and rocks and defeat us in a conventional large scale battlefield type encounter such as WWII.

Yeah, I mean that 50+ year old manual Lathe we have never cuts straight or true...oh wait, yeah it does.

Do you mean that your 50+ year old manual Lathe has been mothballed for years?
Oh, wait, you said it cuts, so it must not be idled. I said "Idled heavy machinery does not age well." Heavy equipment that is mothballed does not "Turn on and light up".

As far as a discussion of the practicality of a conventional war, neither China or Russia currently have the ability to significantly strike anyone overseas by conventional means.

It is my deepest hope and prayer that if that type of war ever happens again, it will not be here, but there.

The Post WWII US Army has always been large and combat ready and still is today.

The Post WWII military is at about its smallest size since 1995. It is also Battle Weary, with much of the combat personnel having done multiple tours in the existing conflicts.

@Nicey,

The majority comes from Austrilia. Assuming Austrilia would be on our side in such a conflict, Chinas manufacturing industry would almost immediately cease.

If we declared war on China they would just laugh. I mean what are we going to do, blockade them? We can't blockade Cuba! Invade them? We can't invade Pakistan! Nuke them?

Yeah, we can do that. But it's too bad about nuclear winter. We nuke them, we all die. That's some great plan. Oh, and by the way, what is it about killing hundreds of millions of innocent people at the push of a button that would actually be good for our economy?

Even if there is something economically beneficial about killing more people than in all the wars in the entire bloody 20th century, the idea is academic since China owns America. They own our banks, our politicians, and most of our corporations. We belong to them. We are their @!$%#es.

So the mighty Austrillans can't save us. No one can save us because we did this to ourselves.

George Orwell reference I think.

Constant war to have a constant need to produce, keeps all the Proles happy because they have work and such and it keeps all the Party members in power because the Proles need the leadership to see them through the war.

What we are now seeing is, in my opinion, is their end-game.

I'd tend to agree. Since the Federal Governments peak of real power in the 1860s/1870s, Corporatism has advanced ever forward.

Beginning its assualt in 1886 with the inclusion of Constitutional Rights for Corporate Personhoods, to the creation of the Fed in 1913, to the development of complete credit spending starting in the 1980s.

All that is left is to create the 5 major unions (NA, Europe, Asia, Africa, SA) controlled by Corpoate interests, and then make citizens life long workers without earnings.